一次强降水过程涡旋状MCS结构特征及成因初步分析   总被引：8，自引：8，他引：0  

吴涛  张家国  牛奔 《气象》2017,43(5):540-551

利用新一代天气雷达资料分析了造成2011年6月18日湖北省江汉平原强降水涡旋状中尺度对流系统(MCS)发生发展过程的结构特征,联合常规观测、地面加密观测及雷达四维变分风场反演资料初步研究了MCS可能成因。结果表明:(1)成熟阶段的强降水涡旋状MCS回波表现为气旋性弯曲的多条螺旋对流回波带、周围被大片层状云回波所包裹的结构特征,后期因冷空气侵入演变出冷暖锋式结构。回波合并和旋转式列车效应是产生强降水的主要运动特征。(2)涡旋状MCS是在有利环境场下,主要由鄂西山地一江汉平原过渡带边界层中尺度涡旋系统强烈发展组织的结果。(3)中尺度涡旋系统形成发展与地面暖倒槽发展、西南低涡前侧降水和特殊地形作用有密切关系,来自不同方向气流形成的强烈辐合是其前期形成发展的主要机制,后期发展可能与潜热释放有关,涡旋环流向上发展到700 hPa。  相似文献   

The usability of climate information in sub-national planning in India,Kenya and Uganda: the role of social learning and intermediary organisations     

Susannah Fisher  David Dodman  Marissa Van Epp  Ben Garside 《Climatic change》2018,149(2):219-231

Correctly estimating the effect of elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) on biomass production is paramount for accurately projecting agricultural productivity, global carbon balances and climate changes. Plant physiology suggests that eCO₂ should result in a strongly positive CO₂ fertilisation effect (CFE) via positive effects on photosynthesis and water use efficiency. However, the CFE in CO₂ experiments is often constrained because of other factors of which rainfall pattern is particularly important. Here, we apply a generally applicable, empirically derived relationship between the CFE and an index of seasonal rainfall balance (SRB), to identify how historical and projected future rainfall patterns modify the CFE using 25 native grassland sites in south-eastern (SE) Australia as a test case. We found that historical and projected rainfall produced SRBs that varied widely from year-to-year resulting in a CFE that was only positive in about 40% of years, with no or even negative biomass responses in the remainder of years; a finding that is in marked contrast to other studies that have not taken account of relationships between rainfall seasonality and plant responses to CO₂. The dependence of the CFE on SRB also means that using the CFE from a specific eCO₂ experiment can be misleading as the result will be heavily influenced by the SRB during the period of experimentation but this problem can be avoided by using a robust general relationship of the kind used in this study. Generalisations of grassland biomass responses to the rising CO₂ concentration are contextual in terms of the variability in precipitation seasonality; as such, this provides a new lens by which to view aboveground responses to the rising CO₂ concentration and fosters a novel approach for cross-site comparisons among experiments.  相似文献   

The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment     

Nigel W. Arnell  Jason A. Lowe  Ben Lloyd-Hughes  Timothy J. Osborn 《Climatic change》2018,147(1-2):61-76

The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We assess the consequences of achieving this target in 2100 for the impacts that are avoided, using several indicators of impact (exposure to drought, river flooding, heat waves and demands for heating and cooling energy). The proportion of impacts that are avoided is not simply equal to the proportional reduction in temperature. At the global scale, the median proportion of projected impacts avoided by the 1.5 °C target relative to a rise of 4 °C ranges between 62 and 95% across sectors: the greatest reduction is for heat wave impacts. The 1.5 °C target results in impacts that would be between 27 and 62% lower than with the 2 °C target. For each indicator, there are differences in the proportions of impacts avoided between regions depending on exposure and the regional changes in climate (particularly precipitation). Uncertainty in the proportion of impacts that are avoided for a specific sector depends on the range in the shape of the relationship between global temperature change and impact, and this varies between sectors.  相似文献   

Empirical calibration of climate policy using corporate solvency: a case study of the UK’s carbon price support     

Ben Caldecott  Gerard Dericks 《Climate Policy》2018,18(6):766-780

Emission reductions improve the chances that dangerous anthropogenic climate change will be averted, but could also cause some firms financial distress. Corporate failures, especially if they are unnecessary, add to the social cost of abatement. Social value can be permanently destroyed by the dissolution of organizational capital, deadweight losses paid to liquidators, and unemployment. This article proposes using measures of corporate solvency as an objective tool for policy makers to calibrate the optimal stringency of climate change policies, so that they can deliver the least loss of corporate solvency for a given level of emission reductions. They could also be used to determine the generosity of any compensation to address losses to corporate solvency. We demonstrate this approach using a case study of the UK’s Carbon Price Support (a carbon tax).

Key policy insights

• Solvency metrics could be used to empirically calibrate the optimal stringency of climate policies.

• An idealized solvency trajectory for firms affected by climate change policy would cause corporate solvency to initially decline – approaching but not exceeding ‘distressed’ levels – and then gradually improve to a new ‘steady state’ once the low-carbon transition had been achieved.

• In terms of the UK’s Carbon Price Support, corporate solvency of energy-intensive industries was found to be stable subsequent to its introduction. Therefore, the available evidence does not support its later weakening.

  相似文献   

中国城市群多中心网络的拓扑结构   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

赵渺希  黎智枫  钟烨  DERUDDER Ben 《地理科学进展》2016,35(3):376-388

在既有理论基础上扩展了城市群多中心网络的度量工具,考察中国12个城市群总部—分支机构的企业关联网络,比较梳理了地级城市空间联系的拓扑结构。实证研究发现：①包括长三角、珠三角和京津冀三大典型城市群在内,中国城市群内部网络系统的拓扑结构依然发育不完善,在联系数据方面均呈现出一定的稀疏矩阵特征,空间组合关系均为树状结构。②总部区位(出度)的层级性差异均高于分支机构区位(入度)的层级性差异,显示出城市群内部空间“流”的不对称性。③针对12个城市群内部网络的拓扑结构聚类分析表明：长三角、珠三角、京津冀、山东半岛、海峡西岸地区的城市群内部网络联系较为紧密,呈现出一定程度的一体化网络特征;其中三大典型城市群存在明显的企业总部集聚核心,其余城市群内部的网络联系松散,跨城企业联系比重较低,在拓扑结构上大多呈现出以省会或副省级城市为指向的向心式联系。  相似文献   

Spatio‐temporal variation in density and size structure of the endangered sea cucumber Isostichopus fuscus in Huatulco National Park,Mexico          下载免费PDF全文

Andrea Glockner‐Fagetti  Francisco Benítez‐Villalobos 《Marine Ecology》2017,38(1)

The brown sea cucumber Isostichopus fuscus (Ludwig, 1875) has been subjected to strong fishing pressure and is currently considered an endangered species by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Spatial and temporal variations in density were analysed and population parameters of I. fuscus were estimated in three localities of the Southern Mexican Pacific. Density was estimated using circular transects covering a 300 m² area in each locality. Body length and weight were also measured. The mean density was 0.018 ± 0.013 individuals·m^?2, and was statistically significantly lower during summer. The mean length and weight were 22.4 ± 3.8 cm and 396 ± 130 g, respectively, and statistically significant differences were found among localities. The weight–length relationship was W = 0.28·L^1.32 and the mean relative condition index (Kn) = 1.04 ± 0.31. The von Bertalanffy growth equation was L_t = 38.7·(1–exp^(?0.4·t)). The lowest values of length, weight and age were found at Dos Hermanas, suggesting that this locality could be favorable for the settlement of larvae and recruitment and growth of juveniles. The present study is the second to estimate densities of I. fuscus and the first one to publish data on size structure and growth for the population at Bahias de Huatulco. The densities were so low in the three sampled localities that none of them would be able to support a fishery, even under a sustainable management scheme. The information collected in the present study could be helpful for management programs of the Huatulco National Park, as all the data used for these currently come mainly from the populations of I. fuscus in the Gulf of California.  相似文献   

Ore deposits and epithermal evidences associated with intra-magmatic faults at Aïn El Araâr-Oued Belif ring structure (NW of Tunisia)     

Aissa  Wiem Ben  Aissa  Lassaâd Ben  Amara  Abdesslem Ben Haj  Tlig  Said  Alouani  Rabah 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2017,106(8):2653-2665

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Hydrothermal ore deposits at Aïn El Araâr-Oued Belif location are classified as epithermal deposits type. The ore bodies are hosted by upper...  相似文献   

Hydrochemical and stable isotopic investigation of groundwater quality and its sustainability for irrigation in the Hammamet-Nabeul basin,northeastern Tunisia     

Amor Ben Moussa  Sarra Bel Haj Salem  Kamel Zouari  Faycel Jelassi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(20):446

The major ion hydrochemistry, sodium absorption ratio (SAR), sodium percentage, and isotopic signatures of Hammamet-Nabeul groundwaters were used to identify the processes that control the mineralization, irrigation suitability, and origin of different water bodies. This investigation highlights that groundwater mineralization is mainly influenced by water-rock interaction and pollution by the return flow of irrigation water. The comparison of groundwater quality with irrigation suitability standards proves that most parts of groundwater are unacceptable for irrigation and this long-term practice may result in a significant increase of the salinity and alkalinity in the soils. Based on isotopic signatures, the shallow aquifer groundwater samples were classified into (i) waters with depleted δ¹⁸O and δ²H contents, highlighting recharge by modern precipitation, and (ii) waters with enriched stable isotope contents, reflecting the significance of recharge by contaminated water derived from the return flow of evaporated irrigation waters. The deep-aquifer groundwater samples were also classified into (i) waters with relatively enriched isotope contents derived from modern recharge and mixed with shallow-aquifer groundwater and (ii) waters with depleted stable isotope contents reflecting a paleoclimatic origin. Tritium data permit to identify three origins of recharge, i.e., contemporaneous, post-nuclear, and pre-nuclear. Carbon-14 activities demonstrate the existence of old paleoclimatic recharge related to the Holocene and Late Pleistocene humid periods.  相似文献   

Modeling of soil penetration resistance using multiple linear regression (MLR)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Anis Elaoud  Hanen Ben Hassen  Nahla Ben Salah  Afif Masmoudi  Sayed Chehaibi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(20):442

In agricultural areas, the use of machinery leads to improved yields. Nevertheless, its inadequate implementation and excessive utilization can seriously affect the soil efficiency. In fact, latter can be generated by increasing the penetration resistance and subsequently, it results in the compaction phenomenon. This problem becomes considerable with the increasing report wheel/soil. The aim of this work was to evaluate the efficiency through the prediction of soil penetration resistance (Rp) using a statistical model based on moisture content, density, tractor weight, number of passes, and the wheel inflation pressure. Experimental works (211 measurements) were analyzed and the penetration resistance was modeled using multiple linear regressions (MLR). Besides, the developed model elucidates the variables affecting the accentuation of soil Rp and allows the investigation of equations for novel sampled soils. Our results showed that the parameters related to soil and tractors were significant to explain Rp. The adopted model in the MLR analysis emphasizes that the mechanical parameters of ground measurements are statistically significant in estimating and evaluating Rp. The statistical calculation of the R ² expresses 83% of the variance in Rp generated by the various parameters related to soil and tractor. In view of the importance of estimating the penetration resistance (Rp), the regression equation shows that the weight of the tractor and the number of passages contributed the most to the proposed model for the soil.  相似文献   

Flow‐Through Stream Modeling with MODFLOW and MT3D: Certainties and Limitations          下载免费PDF全文

Rose Ben Simon  Stéphane Bernard  Charles Meurville  Vincent Rebour 《Ground water》2015,53(6):967-971

This paper aims to assess MODFLOW and MT3D capabilities for simulating the spread of contaminants from a river exhibiting an unusual relationship with an alluvial aquifer, with the groundwater head higher than the river head on one side and lower on the other (flow‐through stream). A series of simulation tests is conducted using a simple hypothetical model so as to characterize and quantify these limitations. Simulation results show that the expected contaminant spread could be achieved with a specific configuration composed of two sets of parameters: (1) modeled object parameters (hydraulic groundwater gradient, hydraulic conductivity values of aquifer and streambed), and (2) modeling parameters (vertical discretization of aquifer, horizontal refinement of stream modeled with River [RIV] package). The influence of these various parameters on simulation results is investigated, and potential complications and errors are identified. Contaminant spread from stream to aquifer is not always reproduced by MT3D due to the RIV package's inability to simulate lateral exchange fluxes between stream and aquifer. This paper identifies the need for a MODFLOW streamflow package allowing lateral stream‐aquifer interactions and streamflow routine calculations. Such developments could be of particular interest for modeling contaminated flow‐through streams.  相似文献